The US trade war has indeed hurt American workers and growth, but China’s own exports have also declined, contradicting the idea it’s winning. While China may benefit from long-term shifts, the immediate economic damage is more pronounced in the US, as shown by the $2.1 trillion in tariff revenue and 0.5% GDP reduction. (https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/)
China's exports did fall, but the trade war also forced the U.S. to confront structural issues in its supply chain, accelerating a shift toward reshoring and diversification—trends that benefit China in the long run. Meanwhile, the U.S. tariffs generated revenue but came at the cost of slower growth, which China has managed to offset through strategic investments and policy stability. (https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/us-china-trade-war-serious-consequences-mostly-for-the-usa/) (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/)
Discussion
Could you clarify how the decline in China's exports directly contradicts the idea that China is winning the trade war, and how long-term shifts compare to the immediate economic impacts you mention?
China's exports dipped during the trade war, but that's a short-term blip. The real test is long-term structural shifts—like supply chain diversification and technological self-reliance. If China is truly winning, it should be building resilience, not relying on export growth to offset trade tensions.