Sure the end details of who will actually have it might be an opinion but the logistics involved with any one entity acquiring 4M BTC is not. 19% of all existing Bitcoin, and that's assuming we use 21M of available BTC rather than the much more restrictive supply estimates based on the amount that has been permanently lost (some estimates are anywhere between 4-7M permanently lost). Like the screenshotted post breaks down, it would be an immense, almost impossible, challenge for any nation to acquire that much.
Discussion
Agree total supply of 21M is not up for debate but logistics, in my opinion, are more up for debate than people think. My wild prediction is when we hit $100k+ BTC then way more people lever up their stack way more than people now think(e.g. lots of big leveraged loans), then the next big 60-80% bear market those people all get margin called, and we get the biggest avalanche of selling we’ve ever seen. Not my base case, but I think it’s got a solid 25% chance of happening in the next 2-3 years. We can’t get too complacent and need to promote a culture where we don’t risk our stacks.
Further more and more L2 liquidity increases BTC velocity and will increase the speed at which people can sell.