Replying to Avatar Dissident Sound

if you watched Tucker Putin interview it is pretty clear what motivates Putin. he considers Ukraine vitally important and can't allow the west to gradually absorb Ukraine while simultaneously keeping Russia out of the same club.

Because Ukraine is historically much closer to Russia than to the West Putin feels that Russia should exercise greater sway in Ukraine than the west does yet lately it has been the opposite because Ukrainians never really liked Russia, at least not since Stalin's Holodomor of Ukrainians and Ukrainians would rather be a second rate province of EU than a second rate province of Russian Federation.

both Putin and the west tried to meddle in Ukraine's politics but the West has won in that arena, humiliating Putin and making him desperate - ultimately causing him to turn to military as the final resort.

Idiots in Russia believe that Ukraine is a threat to them just like idiots in America believed that Saddam Hussein was a threat to America and war benefits all in power on every side of the conflict ...

this is why the war continues ... it benefits those who are smart and those who are stupid believe that it benefits them ...

will Ukrainians hate Russia ? as i said Stalin already Genocided Ukrainians before. and Americans had beef with the British. basically people can put their hate aside if the conflict ends ...

the problem in Israel isn't the hate - it's that the conflict isn't ending ...

we can't ask people to put hate aside so that conflict may end. we have to end the conflict and then the hate will eventually subside ...

except the conflict in Palestine won't end until Israel murders everyone in the entire middle east ...

what is the end game for Ukraine ? i have no idea.

The part of Russia that the Russian leadership cares about (Moscow) can't easily be invaded by ground forces from anywhere other than Ukraine. Ukraine is the way that region has historically always been invaded. Ukraine is Russia's achilles heel. So of course they are concerned about who controls it. No, the West wasn't lining up in Ukraine to attack Russia, but these kinds of weaknesses need to be "nipped in the bud".

Also, Russia has been in Sevastopol, their only warm water port, since 1783 (when it was Ukrainian, they were on good terms and Russia leased it). Based on the battle lines I'm convinced Russia wanted a land bridge to that port since the Kerch bridge is vulnerable. Despite what anybody says to the contrary; the battle lines speak louder than words.

I think Russia should stay the fuck out of Western Ukraine. And I expect they will. If Russia ends up keeping everything East of Moldova and South of Kharkiv (the yellow region, see this map in this note: nostr:nevent1qqstl4ahamehgtjeskl9q320ms73ltwzpx7tm3q3z87smg8pvs6snmgpzpmhxue69uhkztnwdaejumr0dshszyrhwden5te0v5hxummn9ekx7mp0qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9umrl307) and it stops there, maybe a peace can eventually be had. Russia gets their port. Kiev and Western Ukraine remain an independent sovereign country.

If Russia tries to go further then that, I think NATO will put boots on the ground and escalate massively.

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