This is a great theory. It does a great job explaining Russia’s motivation and their point of view. It discounts the US point of view though.

Do you remember the solar winds hack? Remember all the critical infrastructure that Russia has been probing and even the gas pipeline they hit with ransomware? They invested a lot of resources into their troll factories to sway public opinion in the west to whatever suits their needs. They are clearly hostile to the West and at some point a hot war was inevitable.