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Now do the math on how it looks when you peak and then drawdown 70% over a year or more period? I’m not sure this would hold up in a bear market. I understand that you are starting at a low but that doesn’t mean you won’t encounter a future bear market.

TheBitcoinBattery 8mo ago

From my observations and calculations, if you start on the trend line then the future bear market price is simply a return to the trend from which the bull market deviated.

Bears only occur after bulls, and we have yet to even start deviating from the trendline in any significant sense reminiscent of previous cycles.

Unless the Bitcoin network gets attacked or the economy completely crashes (neither is an impossibility), then the price will be $250k per Bitcoin or more by the end of 2026, likely in October.

I expect there to be a bull cycle starting soon, which may bring us to $1m a coin later this year before the bear market begins and brings it "down" to $250k.

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Discussion

2Pac 8mo ago

Possible but it’s also possible the low in the bear market is the previous high which would bring below where we are now to around $69K.

TheBitcoinBattery 8mo ago

The information I have seen and analyzed, that taught me what I know about how the network has grown over time and what has affected that growth, leads me to the conclusion that it is not possible for the bear market of this upcoming bull run to fall below $250k.

At least not without a major unforseen event affecting the mining network's growth as occurred twice over 2020/2021. Will events of that kind occur again? It's not impossible, but it's unlikely. In addition the network hashrate is 5x what it was in 2021. Much more resilient.

2Pac 8mo ago