I don't believe this conflict is between Israel and Hamas / Hezbollah.

The intelligence failure seems too convenient an excuse to initiate a kinetic conflict with Iran.

The US is now involved in three proxy wars:

- China v US with TW / JP / AUKUS and Asian partners

- Russia v US with Ukraine / EU / NATO partners

- Iran v US with Israel (and likely Turkey and the Saudis)

Egypt is trying to keep its head down.

I hope the impact to civilians will remain at a minimum, but I fear it's going to get a lot worse before it starts getting any better.