In the most recent beige book, manufacturers complained about their clients having large inventories, vendors complained about lower than expected demand or said they reduced inventories.

I think this low gdp cannot be discarded because inventories were low. I also expect this trend to continue.

A falling stock market might be a self fulfilling prophecy for a recession, given how little confidence people have in the economy.

Either way, the market is very overpriced, with little upside and many risk factors.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf