Nostr

The other thing is that the idea that Bitcoin will stabilize against goods and services is related to the sell pressure on individuals and institutions. I’m not sure it ever arrives or reduces that sell pressure.

Bill Cypher 2y ago

In a few decades I think bitcoin will just be money, although likely mostly on some L2. I base that on the better technology always winning throughout history.

If that is so, at some point the sats/goods will stabilize and $/goods will become volatile. Sats/$ will likely always be volatile because one of the other is having wild swings VS goods due to low liquidity.

At that time I see corporate treasuries in #bitcoin. I think large stacks will still be odd. If you want me to buy your stock, you need to be investing in growth or technology to beat standard deflation. Why take on the counterparty risk of holding MSTR if I can just hold bitcoin directly?

Even today, people love apple stock because of their war chest. I think it is time to sell because that proves that are out of ideas.

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Discussion

Phundamentals 2y ago

I think by then we’re done with the HODL stage and move into the use & earn stage. Companies become a much more relevant part of that world.

Bill Cypher 2y ago

I don't think the hodl stage ever ends. That is kind of the point of a fixed supply. I get paid and I don't need to rush to get that spent on some asset before it is inflated away. I just keep the thing I got paid in forever or until I need or want to buy something.

In today's terms, 10% bare minimum of income still goes to rainy day / retirement multi-sig. Most incoming stays on something like a tapsigner for groceries and such and gets spent.

The purpose and drives of an individual and an organization are different for evolutionary reasons. Samsung could kill apple by out innovating and out earning. My neighbor can't do that to me the individual. That means I can just save and be fine as long as I use hard money. Apple must invest in new tech, or new markets or someone else can and will drink their milkshake. Saving more than a small amount relative to revenue hurts their chances of long term survival. For me, larger savings increase my chances of survival and thriving.

Phundamentals 2y ago

Today we Hodl upwards of 95% of our stack. That metric will decline over time to where we’re no longer characterizing this era as HODL’ing.

The earn and use phase might still have 5-10% HODL’ing, likely far less.