1. One block per 10 minutes means 6 blocks per hour, 24*6 blocks per day (on average). So 5000*6*24 = 720000 .

2. but to use directly lightning, you need to open a channel to your node, so you need to do one onchain transaction for every real, direct user of lightning. Otherwise you are not using lightning, you are using someone's service (for example walletofsatoshi's) and this someone maybe uses lightning. Custodial and easy to confiscate if the state feels threatened enough. Fedimint could be an interesting middle ground between custody and self-custody.

3. I rarely get replies, got kind of bored with nostr and did not check my account.

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Discussion

I think there will be multiple ways hyperbitcoinization sets in.

1. Initially not everybody will setup nodes, most people will go for custodial solutions. Tech

savvy people might do that initially. Notechy might go for custodial.

2. People notice custodial solutions are charging huge fees(0.1-0.5%), some more people will move to their own nodes increasing competition and achieving more efficient routers.

3. Also I think hyperbitcoinization will take place in different geographies at different times giving ample time for equilibrium to be established.

4. Rounding to 500k per day, 50M nodes can be setup with enough channels in 100days. Should be more than enough.