Beginning of the year, I warned people would be very wet due to Unga Tonga eruption. It was. 1.4m in November alone. It’s December now and close to year end. We should not have a drop and the hills should be going brown. We’ve now had 3 days of storms and heavy rain.

Do pay attention to volcanic eruptions and their size. It can help one understand potential for changes. Whilst this might be related to something else, I doubt it personally and ability to predict events is a good metric by which to measure mental models. Being prepared can help. PV