By Arthur Hayes

THE END:

Of US Treasuries and to a lesser extent US stocks as the global reserve asset. Since Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971, US treasury debt outstanding grew by 85x. The US had to create the credit dollars necessary for the growth in the world economy. This was good for some Americans and bad for others. Trump was elected on average by those who believe they didn't share in the US "prosperity" of the last 50 years.

If the US current account deficit is eliminated, then foreigners do not have dollars to buy bonds and stocks. If foreigners have to juice up their own nations' economies they will sell what they own, US bonds and stocks, to fund their nation-first policies. And even if Trump backtracks on the severity of the tariffs, no finance minister or world leader can risk Trump changing his mind again, and therefore things cannot return to the way they were. You must do what is best for your country.

THE RETURN:

Of gold as the neutral reserve asset. The dollar will still be the reserve currency, but nations will hold reserves in gold to settle global trade. Trump hinted at this because gold is tariff exempt! Gold must flow freely and cheaply in the new world monetary order.

A lot of those who had it good are in the denial stage, and share a delusion that somehow things will return to "normal". Poppycock.

For those who want to adapt to a return to pre-1971 trade relationships, buy gold, gold miners and $BTC.

That's enough on tariff shit. My next essay will focus on why USDCNY is going to 10.00 bc there is no way that Xi Jinping will agree to change China in the ways necessary to placate Trump. This is the super bazooka $BTC needs to ascend rapidly towards $1 million.

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Discussion

For the last 5 years, many macro investors sensed a problem and have been trying to predict "THE END GAME." It was the correct question and thought, but TBH I got bored listening to trad-fi suits fumble, stumble and bumble it. The brains that got us into this mess, and profited from it, are/were largely blind to the path out. The #bitcoin community is the signal. 🙏🫂🔥

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