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Some thoughts about Russia & WW3:

1. Russia will always come back to The West.

Why? Because The West is the only game in town, and it's the game Russia has played since at least the fall of the Soviet Union. Russian oligarchs send their kids to school in The West, they have vacation homes in The West, they keep their money in dollar bank accounts and have their investments in The West.

Russia doesn't have what it takes to go off on it's own, and trying to do so would end them up becoming a backwater like Iran. The only country who can seriously even consider a break with The West is China.

For Russia, the only possible move would be cozying up to China, and to do this would be a massive break from tradition. Russian top brass are decidedly NOT Chinese. They don't keep their money in Chinese bank accounts, they don't own Chinese real estate, they don't invest in Chinese companies. Like I said, they're Western.

It's not just a difficult transition, it is actually a BAD move. Russia has figured out how to influence politics in The West and is able to jokey for a seat at the table. The Chinese will be damned if they ever let a non-Chinese person influence Chinese politics. So cozying up to China is a one-way-street, China will gain power over Russia and that's it.

Caleb James DeLisle 2y ago

2. The West needs Russia to stay Russian.

While Russia will always want to come back to The West, The West, likewise, needs Russia to stay alive and sovereign. If Russia becomes too much weakened, then it may become unable to hold up against China's loving embrace, and this would be an unmitigated disaster for both Russia and The West. The Western oligarchy will be damned to hell before it will ever allow a single power structure to control the entire Asian continent.

To this end, it is highly unlikely that The West will ever allow Russia to truly LOSE, for to do so creates far too much risk that China will rush in to Stabilize The Situation, and they will take up all of the defensive positions and lock The West out, seizing effective control over Russia.

This dynamic creates an overarching theme for WW3 (or whatever you want to call it), Russia wants to go from being a relatively weak western-aligned country like Brazil to a relatively powerful western-aligned country like India, and do so by temporarily becoming a pariah. Whatever the pundits will say, The West is going to accept this, because Russia is not their real problem, China is.

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Discussion

FourOh-LLC 2y ago

20/20 on this, all the way. Sometimes I think the sheer land size of Russia cannot be truly controlled even when you have all the satellites and billions of drones to watch and patrol. Its like the Cosmos its big and empty. There is nothing there expect a few military assets. OK, maybe a lot of military assets but still its empty.