Exclusive | ‘Reform and opening are not dead’, but China ‘looks risky’ today, old hand says
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China watcher David Lampton says the current tightness of China's political system is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The scope of reforms is narrower and the decision-making system is more tightly controlled. Reform and opening up are not dead, but the current political system is likely to remain tight. Each generation must find its own way to address challenges. China's foreign policy has greater affinity for nations the West finds problematic. China looks risky to businessmen due to larger investments, uncertain political direction, and health of foreign relations. Economic performance affects the legitimacy of all governments, including the Chinese Communist Party. Poor economic performance affects confidence in the ruling party. China's Communist Party is more present in foreign enterprises, which foreign businesses worry about. Succession plans in China are unclear, and lack of transparency can lead to power struggles. US-China relations are in a cold war period characterized by ideological differences, alliance behaviors, and military races. A victory in this cold war is an illusion, and both sides would prefer to see China evolve in a more reform-oriented way. China studies in the US have become more difficult due to restrictions on field research and access to archives. China's influence in terms of hard power and soft power is difficult to measure. Both countries are reducing direct access to each other's scholars and media. Talks between the US and China can help diminish distrust, but addressing the sources of distrust is essential. Modest steps like reopening consulates and reviving cooperation agreements can be helpful.
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