Ok I own and understand Bitcoin.
Here’s my pitch short MSTR end of 2025/early 2026.
End of 2026/early 2027 pull profits and buy Bitcoin, put in cold storage.
Discussion
Probably a decent play
Short it now? Seems like a terrible play. It’s down 56% already and nearly at 1 mnav
My view is yes it has a lot further to go down, but make your own decisions
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If you’re bearish Bitcoin sure, which I just noticed you are
Short yes, long term no. We do this every 4 years, I didn’t get a super cycle last time either
Short term*
MSTR lost its upside correlation this year with all the insider selling Bitcoin was making new ATHs MSTR was not, 2023 and 2024 it was about 2x correlation up and down.
*insiders selling MSTR stock*
Yeah I hear ya. It just got overheated too quick and should probably trade at 1.5 mnav max but if bitcoin isn’t in a bear and catches a bid then MSTR will rip
The issue I’m seeing is if bitcoin breaks below 100k MSTR is gonna tank. And it’s looking more and more probable. The insiders selling doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. They are having a cash position in anticipation of a big drop and they have to be able to service all the dividends and the money isn’t coming from the software business. If bitcoin breaks below $70k then they are now below their cost basis and then things get really ugly for MSTR.
Fair points. Just don’t want to be on the wrong side of it when it turns. Looks like you’re using ETF’s to short so at least covers the unlimited risk of a true short