If I expect bitcoin to be worth $1M in 10 years, and I assume today’s price is $125,000 and that I can get a 10 year bond at 5%, then bitcoin should be worth:
(8/1.05^10)x$125,000=4.911 x 125k = $614,000
So today I would pay no more than $614,000 per bitcoin. That’s $489,000 gains that could be had today if the world agrees bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000 in 10 years. Let’s assign the probability of this at 50-50….then it would be reasonable to sell bitcoin at $125,000+$489,000/2 =$369,500.00
$370,000 is a reasonable price target that splits the estimated 10 year gains equally between buyer and seller.
We are still early.
10 million. Do it again.
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Multiply it by 10. $6M—>$3M would be 50-50 point.
If you assume stocks will go up at 15% risk free, then it’s a measly $186,000 for the 50-50 point (for $1M in 10 years). No matter how you slice or dice it, bitcoin at $125,000 is cheap.
