fascinating

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Looks insanely bullish if true

Why? Spending BTC is good if you replace it

Sure, but I'd imagine circulating sats in hot wallets is a tiny percentage of overall supply. This trend is exactly what you want to see, per Gresham’s Law

Sure, but couldn't it also indicate that coins are being lost and not used?

The more valuable one – ‘good money’ – will be hoarded and will disappear from circulation, while the less valuable one – ‘bad money’ – will be passed on (used for transactions).

Yes, just like silver quarters.

I understand Gresham's Law but there are multiple theories to describe the data. I was just wondering if you could debunk my counter-theory.

What does this data say to you?