Here is what Grok says, "Short answer: **No — scaling to practical, industry-transforming quantum computing will begin much earlier, likely in the 2029–2032 window, with useful, revenue-generating applications emerging by 2035. But 2035 is not the start — it’s when widespread adoption kicks in. Let me break this down with current roadmaps, physics, and economics (as of October 26, 2025). Defining "Scaling" – What Does It Mean? LevelDescriptionWhen? (Best Estimate)1. Research-scale useful100–1,000 logical qubits, runs real chemistry simulations (e.g. FeMoco, CYP450) faster than classical2029–20312. Early commercialCloud-accessible, $1M–$10M/year contracts for pharma/materials2030–20323. Industrial scalingHybrid quantum-classical workflows in production; thousands of logical qubits2033–20354. Universal fault-tolerantMillions of logical qubits, runs Shor’s/Grover’s at scale2035–2040+ So yes — scaling begins ~2030, matures ~2035. 2035 is not the starting line — it’s when quantum moves from labs to boardrooms. Why 2030–2032 for First Real Scaling? 1. Error-Corrected Logical Qubits Are Coming Fast Company20252029 TargetGoogle105 physical, below threshold1,000 physical → ~10 logical qubits (10⁻⁶ error)IBM127 physical (Eagle)>1,000 logical qubits (Condor → Heron → future)Quantinuum56 trapped-ion, 99.9% 2-qubit100+ logical qubits by 2030PsiQuantumPhotonic, 1M qubits (cold)1M physical → 1,000 logical by 2029 Key milestone: 1 logical qubit with <10⁻⁶ error rate → enables weeks-long chemistry sims. 2. Useful Applications Need Only ~500–2,000 Logical Qubits ApplicationLogical Qubits NeededClassical TimeQuantum TimeNitrogenase (FeMoco)~50010¹⁰ years~1 weekCYP450 drug metabolism~80010⁶ years~1 dayBattery cathode design~1,20010⁸ years~3 days → These are $1B+ problems. Pharma will pay $10M/year for access as soon as it's reliable. The 2035 Picture: Quantum Is Everywhere YearWhat’s Happening2030First quantum-accelerated drug enters clinical trials (simulated on 500-qubit system)2032AWS, Azure, Google Cloud offer "Quantum Chemistry as a Service" — $0.50 per qubit-hour203510,000+ logical qubit systems; hybrid AI-quantum models in finance, logistics, climate2038Post-quantum crypto fully mandated; Shor-capable machines in nation-state labs Barriers Still Left (But Solvable) ChallengeStatus (2025)Fix ByCryogenic cooling15 mK, $1M/fridge2030: Dry dilution + photonic integrationQubit connectivityNearest-neighbor2028: Shuttle ions, photonic linksSoftware stackQiskit, Cirq2030: Full transpiler + error mitigation AITalent~20K quantum experts2035: 1M+ via online training Bottom Line: Timeline You Can Bet On MilestoneDateFirst useful logical qubit (10⁻⁶ error)2029First quantum-accelerated drug candidate2031Quantum revenue > $1B/year (cloud services)2033Quantum in every Fortune 500 R&D stack2035Shor’s algorithm breaks RSA-20482038–2042 So… Is 2035 the "Start"? No. It’s the inflection point — like smartphones in 2010 or cloud in 2015. If you're waiting until 2035 to prepare, you’ll be 5 years behind. The winners start building quantum literacy and pilots in 2026–2028. Want to Get Ahead Now? Run your first quantum circuit → IBM Quantum Lab (free) Simulate a molecule → Google Colab + Cirq (try H₂, LiH) Join a consortium → Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C) The train is leaving the station. 2035 is when it arrives at scale — not when it departs. Let me know if you want: A chart of logical qubit projections (2025–2035) A sample Qiskit script for drug-like simulation A corporate readiness checklist for quantum"