National Defense Brief: #China/U.S. War

BLUF: Intel reveals U.S military planning for kinetic war w/ China; military draft expected for civilians/IRR/NNRPS; 4 week basic training OK'd; Biden authorizes $500 million in arms to #Taiwan, China responds warning they'll "smash" U.S. attempts to interfere.

Newly obtained intelligence provides more insight into the Secretary of the Army's previous announcement that the U.S. is planning for a military conflict with China and the USAF Air Mobility Commander's assessment of it occuring by 2025.

A U.S. military HUMINT source revealed that China is expected to obtain a "plateau" of economic assets to launch a military offensive capable of sustaining a war against the U.S. by 2025. This coupled with increased rhetoric against Taiwanese independence and the U.S.'s possibility of intervention if an invasion of Taiwan was to occur, would lead to a China/U.S. conflict. The source revealed that multiple logistical operations have already began to position the U.S. to fight a kinetic war in the Indo-Pacific region with anticipated loss of U.S. vessels assured.

The source further advised that the U.S. military has internally approved a national draft (if necessary) to include civilians, those under Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) Military Service Obligations (MSO), those under Non-obligated Non-Participating Ready Reserve Personnel Section (NNRPS), and those released from IRR MSOs (includes all former service members). The source further explained that at least one branch (Navy) would field an expedited Intial Entry Training (basic training) that would last for only 4 weeks for newly enlisted sailors.

Debrief: While this is a reliable and verified source, the intel has not be independently confirmed by official channels or an alternative HUMINT source. This is non-actionable at this time and is shared FYSA only.

The timeline corresponds with the Commander of the U.S. Air Force's Air Mobility Command, who advised that he projects a war with China in 2025.

The Secretary of the U.S. Army statements are also inline with the source's strategic intelligence (not revealed here for OPSEC/NATSEC purposes). The Secretary advised that the military is establishing "theater distribution centers” in the Indo-Pacific region IOT stockpile supplies and fuel. She explained that "staging bases for the Navy, for the Marines, for the Air Force" are being built-up with "integrated air and missile defense capabilities". Speaking to the U.S. Army's role she explained that the "goal is to have Army forces in the Indo-Pacific seven to eight months out of the year" leading up to a conflict.

For a contextual reminder, the Commander of the U.S. Air Force's Air Mobility Command, General (4-star) Mike Minihan, drafted a memorandum warning of war with China in 2025, saying "I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022...Taiwan's presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States' presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025."⁠ The Commander further urged service members to train with their firearms advising "unrepentant lethality matters most..aim for the head."⁠ In the memo the Commander explained that the military "spent 2022 setting the foundation for victory...we will spend 2023 in crisp operational motion building on that foundation." The memo explained U.S. forces need to work "faster" and be ready to "deter, and if required, defeat China."⁠ The head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee responded to the Commander's memo saying "I think he’s right." The former Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command warned that the "threat [with China will] manifest" by 2025.

///BREAK///

President Biden will use the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) to retract supplies from U.S. stockpiles without congressional approval (lawful under an emergency) to send $500 million (another $500 million is earmarked) in arms along with 100+ military advisors to Taiwan. China’s People’s Liberation Army responded on May 16th to Biden's PDA action saying that China "continues to strengthen military training and preparations and will resolutely smash any form of Taiwanese independence secession along with attempts at outside interference, and will resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Debrief: Of note, the PDA action has been used 35+ times by Biden to send aid to Ukraine. Taiwan has complained of lack of support in recent months as U.S. arsenals continue to move to Ukraine, depleting U.S. supplies and leaving Taiwan without the support they've requested. Also, China just completed war games in the region a few weeks ago.

》Sources: | | https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/top-lawmaker-on-generals-of-2025-war-with-china-i-think-hes-right_5018613.html | https://www.voanews.com/a/us-army-secretary-lays-out-strategy-for-war-with-china/6985136.html | HUMINT | https://www.sss.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Strategic-Plan-FY2020-FY2025.pdf | https://time.com/6251419/us-china-general-war-2025/ | https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/04/18/war_before_2025__the_plas_villainous_plan_to_defeat_the_us_military_894361.html | | https://www.reuters.com/world/us-moving-ahead-with-500-million-arms-aid-taiwan-source-says-2023-05-05/