As usual, Bitcoin surprised with a quick surge to US$30,000 plus, which seems to be holding well. This has to be seen against a background of majority bearishness.

Where to from here? Optimistic opinion would suggest a maximum of $50K this year, while pessimists are still looking for "one more correction" in the hope of buying more at a cheaper price. A fool's game.

Meanwhile, most of us are fixated on the 4 year halving cycle which, as we all know, delivers all time highs near the end of the year following a halving. The next halving is 2024 so there's the expectation we won't see any dramatic price action until the latter part of 2025.

I think it would be a mistake to always assume bitcoin will move in accordance to pre-ordained plans and cycles. There are too many variables at play, not least of which is the economic turmoil all around us.

I'm of a mind to believe a new ATH will happen this year, when people least expect it. It could even exceed $100K. And I say this as someone who has been actively involved and invested in bitcoin since 2011. Call it my gut feeling.