“The app indicates a trend value of about 118,066 dollars.
So the estimated top is:
Top=118,000+78/100* 118,000=[$210,000]…
Bottom of the next cycle=165,000*0.5 = [$83,000].
These are rough estimates but they are in line with our full model that tries to include the general power law trend, the hard 50–60 % bottom, sinusoidal 4-year period oscillations, and an exponential decay similar to the one calculated above.”
~$200,000 seems reasonable
a bear-market low drawdown of ~60%, again, reasonable
#powerlaw
#bitcoin