On the morning of (an unusually pivotal) #FOMC meeting, the CME futures market is predicting a 65% chance of a 50 bps cut of the federal funds rate, and a 35% chance of a 25 bps rate cut.

MORE IMPORTANT TO ME as a fund manager is what the FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell have to say (definitively) about the Fed's balance sheet going forward.

Will #QE begin in earnest? Or will the Fed wait for turmoil in the bond markets before ending "not-QT"?

In other words, will a new wave of liquidity begin to flow from the US government into the private sector? If so, at what rate?

Because we have non-free, centrally-manipulated markets, I will be watching today's events with great interest.

🍿 #macro