If you try 2 on me in Bisq, I will chain analysis your deposit TX and cancel the trade, potentially taking your deposit if the moderaters agree with me that we don't want dirty tainted KYC sats on Bisq.
In practice, I do not see much of people selling KYC sats on P2P platforms. Owners of KYC sats should understand that selling on KYC-free creates a tax liability, unless they want to undermine the KYC-free platform by declaring all the details to the IRS.
I don't sell sats tbh, KYC or non-KYC ☺️
But so what you are saying is that buying/selling P2P (at least on Bisq) wouldn't influence price at all?
(Not that I would change any needle even by the merest decimals by the small amounts I am able to stack nowadays 🤣 even if I would buy on a fully KYC major exchange )
It would have impact price if it's market share was higher. Since Bisq volume is <1/10,000 of CEX volume, it's affect on price is negligible in aggregate.
Though I'd also argue that a dollar of sats bought from Bisq has more influence on price than a dollar of sats bought on CEX, since the Bisq sats are self-custodial and only re-hypotheticated.
Although I might agree with you on value, my brain can't wrap around price. 🤔
Value is the worth. A KYC free utxo is measurably worth more than a KYC'ed utxo.
The price of Bitcoin though is measured by keeping only in account the CEX'es on which a lot of P2P exchanges also base their prices (as a % premium on that averaged CEX price). In all honesty I do not know how BISQ looks nowadays 😶🌫️ so not sure if there is just a demand price or a premium.
But now even if we all agree on f.e. BISQ that nonKYC sats are worth 100k, that won't change the price on the CEX,... thus not influence 'the Bitcoin price' (as measured by indexes) unless ofc. there is a rise of a new Samurai that allows for mixing KYC'ed sats and thus being able to sell those on a P2P exchange (creating a bigger demand on the CEX exchange and thus pulling the price up)
What I am getting at is not to buy on KYC exchange,... on the opposite ☺️
I don't (want to) care about the price, as long as I can buy and sell my goods and services for sats with the people I know value these sats on the same level as I do 🤔
If that makes sense? 😆(not looking for agreement or not, just not sure if I am able to express myself clearly, I have a cluttered mind & it shows in my communication
😅)
By the way #freeSamurai
The price of Bitcoin can be a different quantity for different people. You might recall the 2017 arb between the Korean price and the USD price.
If I choose to only ever trade on Bisq, then my bitcoin price will be whatever is available on Bisq.
I guess when you refer to price you refer to the lowest friction most liquid representation of the price. Then you are trying to talk about the factors that influence the price of the lowest friction most liquid representation of the price.
I think you simplified the representation by talking about CEX price as a single quantity. Technically every currency pair is slightly different. Every CEX will also differ in price, with the price potentially varying alongside the credit worthiness, or simply from the long/short bias differences in the userbase.
You also have the price of futures vs the spot market, which is very actively traded too, in addition to the OTC trading desks.
In a Liquid well capitalized market these differences will be small, and track the cost of capital for putting on the spread to arbitrage the price descrepancies.
Back to the case of Bisq, if we say it is not common for people to arbitrage the price difference. Consider the Bisq users might have two separate KYC and non-KYC stacks which never mix, but if they want to exchange BTC for fiat or vice versa they might prefer Bisq vs CEX on the margin at some price difference. Thus in that way they can still affect an influence on the price in the other venues.
Above all the influence on price will be proportional to the volume traded. Though CEX can play games with inflating volume, they still have >99.99% market share for price discovery.
