Replying to Avatar jb55

If deepseek did reinforcement learning over chain of thought reasoning to train r1… and alphago used reinforcement learning to find superhuman strategies in Go… maybe scaling up reinforcement learning on chain of thought reasoning will get us closer to superhuman reasoning and dare i say agi? Feels like we’re at the beginning of something huge.
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Joe Resident 10mo ago

This is the core insight that leads me to feel that currently, there's about a 40‰ chance of human-level AI within 7 years

(meaning there is no cognitive task it's worse than humans at. It's already superhuman at many tasks)

In my mind, the fastest it could happen is about 10 months, but it would probably be too expensive to run for most things. Would need another 2 years after that for the cost to be reasonable for everyday tasks

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