https://void.cat/d/GWhaZNk4FSQE69n3R1DVaT.webp

Shen: Yet another Russian ship destroyed by the Ukrainians. This one appears to have been attacked via air strike shortly after Christmas.

I have spoken of lessons learned. It is often cautioned "Don't fight the last war." Trying to predict what factors will be decisive in an unfought war is difficult.

However, given the activity in the Red and Black Seas, it appears anti-access/ area denial weapons are currently stronger than what Navies can bring to bear.

In the age of sail, parking powerful ships of the line off the coast of a less developed country could often cow them into submission. Now, a less developed nation can saturate you with cheap attacks from drones or missiles, and either force you to expend expensive countermeasures or destroy you.

This is a data point that China will certainly study. China has invested heavily in A2/AD capabilities. It is uncertain if any adversary could approach safely, no matter how advanced.

Are they seeing a limited window where they might have an advantage in a Taiwan scenario?

#russia #ukrain #china #taiwan

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