Someone might object and say something about the likelihood of various states. So then I have to explain what probability actually is.

The universe only happens one way. If I toss a penny, it lands either heads or tails. Let's say I toss a penny and catch it and I peek at it but I don't show you. I ask you what are the odds it is heads up? You say 50% and I say "Nope. The odds are 0%" because I cheated, I saw that it was tails up. So what were the odds _really_? Objectively? That is undefined. Probability isn't objective. It is not just about the universe, but about how much you know about that universe, and much more so about you than about what you think it is about. To keep this clear, I like to think of probability as the measure of your ignorance.