Is quantum computing a threat to Bitcoin and possibly an agent of chaos?

Not uniquely. If quantum computing becomes powerful enough to compromise Bitcoin, it would pose a much broader threat. That includes online banking, traditional payment systems, stock exchanges, secure web browsing, email, VPNs, classified communications, defense infrastructure, diplomatic channels, medical records, pacemakers, smart grids, supply chains, and cloud services. Bitcoin wouldn’t be the canary in the coal mine; it would be one of many systems affected.

Ironically, Bitcoin remains one of the most asymmetric bets in the face of quantum uncertainty. It’s the only major protocol where concern over an event possibly decades away is already being debated and preemptively addressed…something most industries punt down to the next executive or administration. That level of forward looking scrutiny actually makes me more bullish, not less.

In a quantum capable world, anyone, including bad actors, would have a choice: try to attack and destabilize Bitcoin (which could tank their own asset holdings), or use their power to help secure the network and claim the rewards. Why destroy the boat you’re sailing in? The incentives to secure rather than sabotage are powerful.

It’s also worth noting that the computational cost to break Bitcoin’s encryption might simply be better spent elsewhere. Bitcoin’s encryption isn’t uniquely weak; it’s among the strongest, and in cybersecurity, you don’t have to outrun the bear; you just have to outrun the slowest person. Many systems are more vulnerable than Bitcoin…not to mention painstakingly more valuable.

Eventually, Bitcoin will become quantum resistant. The real challenge is coordination: will that happen before or after a successful quantum attack? That’s the key unknown. But even a successful attack wouldn’t render Bitcoin invalid; it would likely trigger panic and present a once in a generation buying opportunity.

Updating Bitcoin for quantum resistance will open a can of worms. It’ll require changes to more than one component of its design, and that brings debate, trade-offs, and preferences, but this is expected and healthy; how open systems evolve.

It’s also worth noting: newer Bitcoin addresses are less vulnerable to quantum attacks, due to how public keys are handled. The threat is real, but it’s not universal, and not immediate.

So what happens when quantum’s eventual threat meets Bitcoin’s inevitable truth?

Growth.

Betting against Bitcoin because of quantum computing will, in the long run, prove to be a mistake.