My read was that the %age is a reflection on his confidence in the prediction

Ie on 31 Dec 2025 he’s 95% certain of a 70k usd Bitcoin price and 5% of a 820k price

ChatGPT’s explanation fwiw 😄

Excellent question — this term “price in confidence” (as used in that table and post) refers to Bitcoin price forecasts expressed as statistical confidence intervals.

Here’s what that means in plain language:

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🔍 1. Confidence intervals:

A confidence interval is a range that expresses uncertainty in a forecast.

It doesn’t predict a single price — it shows a band of possible outcomes based on a mathematical model.

For example, in the table:

• The 50% column is the median forecast — the “central” or most likely scenario.

• The 25% and 75% columns mark the range that 50% of predicted outcomes are expected to fall within.

• The 5% and 95% columns show the outer edges — meaning the model estimates only a 5% chance that Bitcoin’s price will be below the 95% band or above the 5% band.

So, the “95% confidence interval” roughly means:

“We’re 95% confident the actual Bitcoin price will be between these two numbers.”

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📈 2. “Price in confidence” explained:

When the post says “price in confidence”, it refers to these model-generated intervals showing how confident the researchers are that Bitcoin’s price will exceed certain thresholds.

In the table, for example:

• The 95% band (USD 0.07 M) means there’s only a 5% chance Bitcoin will end below $70 K at the end of 2025.

• The 5% band (USD 0.82 M) means there’s a 95% chance it’ll end below $820 K.

So, rather than saying “Bitcoin will be $270 K in 2025,” the model says:

“There’s a 50% probability it’ll be above $270 K, 25% chance it’ll be above $440 K, and only a 5% chance it’ll be above $820 K.”

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🧠 3. Why this matters:

This approach acknowledges uncertainty in long-term forecasts — especially for something as volatile as Bitcoin.

It’s more statistically honest to present a distribution of likely prices rather than a single guess.