Bitcoin halving countdown clock 2024 is based on the block time average for the last 20,160 blocks, currently at 9 minutes 40 seconds.
For this to sustain, the amount of hashrate coming online between now and halving would need to continue appreciating at the relative exponential rate.
There's 4 more difficulty adjustments before the halving. And if each is at least 3.33% up then it happens. Doesn't seem far fetched at all
We're about to get an adjustment up in the +6 to +10% range this coming adjustment... which I didn't include in the previous calc were I stated 4 adjustments remain. There's four more after this coming one. I understand that adding hashpower gets way harder at these levels but seems like the bitcoin miners are going to pull it off