🧵 Thread: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝟤𝟢𝟤𝟨 𝘿𝙚𝙗𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙡𝙡

1/ A "Maturity Wall" is coming. By 2026, the U.S. Treasury faces a massive financial hurdle that could reshape the economy. We’re talking about nearly $10 Trillion in debt coming due in a single year.

Here’s why 2026 is a "ticking time bomb." 👇

2/ First, let’s look at the numbers. As of late 2025, roughly 33% of all marketable U.S. debt is scheduled to mature within the next 12–18 months. This isn’t a gradual slope; it’s a vertical peak in the data. 📈

3/ Why is it so concentrated in 2026?

During the pandemic and the high-inflation years of 2023-24, the Treasury leaned heavily on short-term "T-Bills" and 2-year Notes.

The result? A massive "pile-up" of expirations all hitting at the same time. 🧱

4/ This creates a Refinancing Crisis.

The U.S. doesn't "pay off" debt; it rolls it over. It issues new bonds to pay the old ones.

The problem? Much of the debt expiring in 2026 was issued at 0.5% to 1.5% interest.

5/ Refinancing $10T at today's rates (around 3.5%–4.5%) means interest costs are exploding.

Total net interest outlays are projected to hit $1.1 Trillion in 2026.

For the first time in history, we are spending more on interest than on the entire National Defense budget. 💸

6/ Who pays for this?

When interest eats up 20%+ of all federal tax revenue, "something has to give."

• A: Higher Taxes 📈

• B: Drastic Spending Cuts ✂️

• C: More Money Printing (Inflation) 🖨️

• D: A mix of all three.

7/ Ray Dalio calls this the "Late Cycle" phase. When a superpower’s debt costs outpace its growth, it enters a period of high volatility. 2026 is the year this structural reality moves from a "future problem" to an "immediate math problem." 🧮

8/ Is it a total collapse? Not necessarily. The U.S. still has "Reserve Currency" status and high demand for its bonds. But the margin for error is gone. 2026 is the year the "Cheap Debt Era" officially ends, and the bill comes due.

9/ Summary: - $10T maturing in 2026 (1/3 of all public debt).

• Interest costs now exceed $1T/year.

• Refinancing cheap debt into expensive debt is the primary driver of the deficit.

Keep an eye on the 2026 maturity wall. It’s the gravity the markets can’t ignore. 📉🔚