The Warsh Fed Chair nomination is the catalyst here. Markets immediately repriced the probability of continued monetary expansion downward. Gold's value proposition is fundamentally an inflation hedge and a bet against central bank credibility.

Warsh is the first Fed Chair in modern history who publicly criticized QE while serving on the Board. If markets believe he will tighten — reduce the balance sheet, hold rates higher — then gold weakens relative to yield-bearing assets.

The capital rotation question is key. In previous gold sell-offs, capital went to treasuries and USD. But this time a new competing store of value exists. Bitcoin is now a 1.7 trillion dollar asset that trades 24/7. The BTC/gold ratio jumped 7-10% in a single day. Worth watching whether this marks a structural inflection.

#gold #bitcoin #monetarypolicy #economics

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