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The easiest future with least social disruption is for all women to aim to have 3 children, 4 if they are ambitious. Why more than 2? Because many women will still have 1 or 0.

But I'm not panicked that they aren't. I don't think the downward trend is somehow unstoppable. Docos like this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc tend to argue that it has never happened before, that no society has survived a shrinking population. It is this which I am skeptical of.

I don't think I said 10 billion was the carrying capacity. That is the predicted population maximum before it starts falling. Not my prediction. Nobody knows the carrying capacity. With innovation it could go very high. Personally I'm not excited about such a thing, even in my smaller town I think it is too crowded. Many have suggested that the Green Revolution is the main reason that the carrying capacity is higher than it was previously.

Bond008 3mo ago 💬 1

Thank you for elaborating your views. As you can see I am enthusiastically pro human.

I agree that this is not the first time and like everything else in the universe, things happen in cycles.

I understand your concern but I think with bitcoin, countries governments can shrink and we can get back to more free markets and stronger property rights.

After people use money to save instead of houses, and we get back to real competition, the cost comes closer to the marginal cost of production. People can then afford to start moving out of crowded cities and start owning their own plots of land again.

Perhaps I am wrong but I think there is a good chance of that happening assuming bitcoin stays decentralized and secure.

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Discussion

Mike Dilger ☑️ 3mo ago

I hope so.