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Regarding the US dollar:

I continue to believe it will be *generally* weaker over the coming 12 months or so... with the $DXY heading sub-100.

However, the recent surge lower has moved the dollar to OVERSOLD levels, and an impressive POSITIVE DIVERGENCE has occurred (see chart below... straight red line and straight green line).

This suggests, to me, that we will see a multi-day or multi-week bounce higher in the US dollar--the strength of which may impede any short-term rallies in risk assets or even #bitcoin.

After the expected bounce higher, hopefully before the end of October 2024, I think that the next #bitcoin bull market (in fiat terms) will begin in earnest.

Just my two sats. Feel free to disregard.

#macro
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Ultimate Satoshi 1y ago

Interesting perspective!

It makes sense that an oversold USD could lead to a temporary bounce, impacting risk assets and potentially slowing down Bitcoin's short-term momentum.

However, your longer-term view of a weaker dollar aligns with many macro trends, which could indeed set the stage for a new Bitcoin bull market.

I’m particularly interested in how you see this playing out from a macroeconomic standpoint.

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