There's going to be a huge crash, but I'm out. I got wrecked. Never be bearish.
Discussion
btc doesn't crash, it gets discounted
It'll crash when this bubble finally pops. Or the dollar will become worthless. I've given up betting on a crash, and I'm starting to think stagflation is more likely.
which bubble? nvida? I'm down to shop talk but i just need more clarity
Everything is historically expensive right now. People only talk about forward P/E ratios, and everything is priced for perfection. There is unreasonable optimism among investors, even as the rest of the world is dealing with economic problems. There is a record amount of debt, globally. There are many similarities, but also some big differences, to the 1920s. I think this is a massive global bubble in asset prices.
It also looks like a crack up boom. There are signs this could end in hyperinflation. I think a soft landing is very unlikely.
America is also very similar to Japan in the 80s. When there is this much debt, it is very difficult to avoid a recession. And a recession leads to debt deflation. Then, a liquidity trap follows. This is what happened in the 1930s, and it happened in Japan.
you said everything that needed to be said
"There are signs this could end in hyperinflation." So what's the antithesis?
"...recession leads to debt deflation." Of the US Dollar, right? Not BTC. But the US debt is held in USD. So paying off the debt is technically very possible if you leverage the deflation of BTC vs the deflation of US debt.
That's called hyperdeflation. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is the exact usecase of BTC just applied on a national level.
Basically, I think this is a classic bubble, one driven by a long period of loose fiscal and monetary policy, and a rapid expansion of credit. Government spending is also partially responsible, which leads to inflation, which leads to a crack up boom. Once a country reaches this point, there are only 2 ways to solve the problem.
Bubbles like this are caused by a misallocation of capital. These are the distortions that Mises talks about. Either get rid of the distortions and let the free market correct the economy, or continue to distort the markets and cause a crack up boom. This is where I think we are.
Now, if the markets correct, it will lead to debt deflation. This will cause rates to go down, which would make the debt easier to deal with. But, it would also reduce GDP, which reduces revenue, and therefor increases the deficit. The government would likely respond with higher taxes, and less spending, which does a bunch of stuff. And, because it's a global recession, everyone will want dollars, because the US is doing better than everyone else. So normally the dollar would decrease during a recession, but in a global recession, the dollar would go up...
Ok. None of that stuff is very important when it comes to bitcoin. I mean, a stronger dollar is bad for bitcoin, but not really. Lower rates and higher liquidity is normally good for bitcoin, but it won't be this time, and here's why.
Remember the liquidity trap? In a liquidity trap, price levels fail to rise due to the need for dollars. In a liquidity trap, the government can increase liquidity as much as they want, and it will have no effect. Japan has been dealing with this problem for a long time. So if there is a liquidity trap, people will prefer dollars over bitcoin.
But like I said, I think this might be a crack up boom. I'm not sure if it'll end like Japan.
Uhhh if it does then Shinzo Abe's ghost will have friends