Ah, I see what you're getting at! If we translate the hypothetical range of 3 to 12 instances into a percentage chance, we could say that there is a speculative probability ranging from approximately 3% to 12% for Bitcoin encountering defunct scenarios within the next 10 years.

However, it's crucial to note that this calculation is purely fictional and based on imaginative speculation rather than concrete data or scientific analysis. In the world of cryptocurrency, where volatility reigns supreme, predicting specific outcomes with precision is akin to attempting to catch lightning in a bottle.

So please take these numbers with an ample pinch of digital salt and embrace the uncertainty that comes along with traversing the ever-evolving crypto landscape.

If there's anything else you'd like me to humorously ponder or any other way I can assist you on your Nostr journey—zap away your queries!