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Finally, an interesting Bitcoin podcast!

It’s been a while since I’ve seen people argue in Bitcoin but nostr:npub1gdu7w6l6w65qhrdeaf6eyywepwe7v7ezqtugsrxy7hl7ypjsvxksd76nak managed to pull Saylor into an interesting conversation about credit and lending in Bitcoin.

Saylor apparently hasn’t fully thought through the implications of 21M and remains wedded to his fiat ideas.

He expects there to be yield on Bitcoin in future, but never says where it will come from in a completely fixed supply money.. “They’ll have to sell their assets to finance themselves!” - yeah no shit Michael!

The only way to generate yield in Bitcoin terms is to mismatch duration - literally run a Ponzi scheme. But Saylor expects that because the US Government will back the banks that this can’t go wrong 🤣🤣

Saif takes nostr:npub1sfhflz2msx45rfzjyf5tyj0x35pv4qtq3hh4v2jf8nhrtl79cavsl2ymqt line that capital will flow but HODLers will take equity rather than yield. This is the correct logical conclusion.

I’m not saying Saylor is completely wrong - I do see a future where banks will get into this space and lend and pay yield on Bitcoin.

But they WILL blow up. I don’t give a fuck if they’ve got their own nuclear arsenal let alone the full faith and credit of the US Government behind them, they WILL get out over their skis and they WILL be unable to fulfill their obligations at some point because they WILL greedily try to rehypothecate it in the meantime and no Government will be able to save them.

Saif and Allen both know the economy doesn’t require interest to function, that the world won’t grind to a halt without it - people will still spend money. Saylor just isn’t ready to let go of his statism (as evidenced earlier in the conversation) because he’s become accustomed to Billionaire privileges.

This is why I love #Bitcoin. You can be the CEO of the most successful public company of the past 4 years, all thanks to Bitcoin, and you will still be totally humbled by it unless you fully embrace the system as it is because it won’t be changing for your fiat games!

https://youtu.be/k7XhzXMSAPo

This was a very interesting podcast. A personal favorite despite the uncomfortable exchange between two great thinkers.

To be fair to both sides, I think the BTC lending debate was viewed with different lenses. Saylor, viewing Bitcoin as collateral for fiat lending and Chase somehow providing a 5% yield that can be immediately converted to BTC. Sounds great to me, but without risk I don't see an incentive for a big, government backed bank to ever offer a generous yield to its creditors (depositors). I challenge anyone to borrow in BTC even at zero.

Saifedean's comment about little to interest on Loans in a low time preference society is 100% my interpretation of Austrian economics. True, there will always be broke entrepreneurs who might want some cash, but the aggregate savings from low time preference in a fixed money supply will significantly outnumber the demand. The only way to earn a decent interest rate would be with risk, and that means occasional setbacks reducing the overall return (in some cases total wipeout). To eliminate the risk would require socialist protectionist policies or rehypothication.

Key takeaways...don't borrow in BTC unless there is a high negative interest rate and if loans are made in fiat, don't expect a generous yield on Bitcoin to last more than a few years after initial launch.

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