Geiger Capital pointed out that the last two times the Fed's first cut was 50+ basis points were January 3, 2001, and September 18, 2007. Following the 2001 cut, the S&P fell 39%. In 2007, the drop was 54%. And yet here were some of the headlines:

2000:

• "Why the Markets Will Keep Booming" – Newsweek, February 7, 2000

• "The Ever-Expanding Stock Market" – The Washington Post, March 9, 2000

• "Economy Still Flying High, Fed Says" – CNN Money, April 5, 2000

• "Stocks Are Safe Again: The Economy's Solid, Inflation's Under Control" – U.S. News & World Report, January 17, 2000

• "No End in Sight for the Bull Market" – Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2000

2007/2008:

• "Subprime Woes Won't Derail Economy" – Reuters, April 3, 2007

• "Why the U.S. Economy Will Keep Growing" – BusinessWeek, March 5, 2007

• "No Recession in Sight, Say Economists" – The New York Times, July 18, 2007

• "The Market's Resilience is Impressive" – Forbes, August 6, 2007

• "Stocks Set to Soar" – Barron's, April 28, 2008

• "The Global Economy is Sound" – Financial Times, March 7, 2008

Just a reminder that no one really knows anything.