One caveat to the last paragraph is what I had been arguing for the past couple of years about the Fed - which is that I can hardly see them letting Trump just win again.

That has been my fundamental thesis for interest rates going down in 2024, so boomers see their stocks go up again and vote harder for Biden.

But it's almost May already, so it's too late for that. On the contrary, if they touched rates now, the effects would only kick in after Trump is back in the Whitehouse to reap the profits of a "recovery" (rather just kicking the can a bit further, which is the base of the whole boomer fiat economy).

So my conclusion is the opposite now. The Fed is discounting a Trump victory and not only will not move rates now, but probably will do its worst when Trump is back in to keep crushing the people so he can't benefit from the mirage of lower rates.

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