"AI is the hammer, Bitcoin is the hard place"
A Monetary Breakdown
Governments are trapped between:
1. AI (The Hammer): Accelerating Deflation
AI increases productivity and efficiency at unprecedented rates. Labor gets replaced or augmented, reducing the cost of production. Marginal costs approach zero in many sectors (code, design, customer service, etc.).
Price deflation follows — things get cheaper, faster, and better.
Problem for governments:
Deflation is toxic to debt-based economies. If prices fall, debt becomes harder to service in real terms. To counteract this, governments feel pressured to: Print more money to induce inflation and maintain GDP growth, asset prices, and employment optics.
2. Bitcoin (The Hard Place): A Scarcity-Based Parallel System
Bitcoin enforces monetary discipline through absolute scarcity. It exposes fiat debasement:
Bitcoin's fixed supply and global liquidity make it a monetary yardstick.
As governments print, Bitcoin rises in fiat terms.
This forces governments into a dangerous loop:
The more they print to manage deflation,
The more Bitcoin rises as a hedge,
The more people exit the fiat system,
The less control the state has over capital.
The Trap:
To fight AI-induced deflation, governments must inflate.
But inflating accelerates Bitcoin adoption.
And the more Bitcoin adoption rises, the more the fiat system is delegitimized.
Eventually, they print themselves into irrelevance.
This dynamic reveals a systemic bind:
AI forces money printing to counter its deflationary side effects.
Bitcoin punishes money printing by exposing fiat weakness.
And since both trends are accelerating, governments are caught between:
A deflationary force that makes them inflate
And a hard asset that punishes them for inflating
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