3 green 1 red. I didn't make the rules and I won't be gambling my sats that the pattern finally fails.
Discussion
If you think $69,000 to $107,000 is a bullish move for the *hardest* money in the world over a 4+ year timeline - more power to you.
Record ETF inflows
Record BTC treasury company BTC accumulation
Record pleb stacking
Record mining hash rate
Record positive legislation
FASB accounting changes
1.6x from 2021 ATH - NOW in 2025???
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
You haven't been paying attention and aren't good at math.
First of all 20x to 3.5x is an acceptable drop but 3.5x to 1.6x isn't?
2nd. Leverage junkies and custodians papering instead of buying set the price, not buy and hold folks. Bears happen because a dip catches a paper custodian out cascade killing longs which catches the next paper custodian and so on.
Only 1.6x with all those new buyers and markets. You really wanna bet none of the custodians is papering? You really want to bet we won't hit a dip big enough to run their reserves dry?
Every cycle brings more true believers but it also brings more cheats out to use a name to line their pockets. I'm not a bear. I'm just not a moonboi with rocket emojis in my eyes. We will get there but only with the repeated sacrifices of the over confident. I'll be buying when the dip comes tomorrow or whenever it gets here just like I bought all the way down and all the way up before.
3.5x to a 1.6x after record ETF inflows, record pleb accumulation, record treasury accumulation, FASB rule changes, record nation state adoption and favourable US legislation for Bitcoin is DOG SHIT 💩.
DCAing is the way. Buy the dips indeed.
I’m still not convinced this is a bull market because over the last 308 days we have seen zero price action.
Stay humble and stack sats for 12 years (2.5 cycles).
Because paper. The poor performance this cycle is central to my expectations and reasoning.
Most of those buyers are just lining up for Coinbase paper, aka mtgox 2.0. Crash is gonna be unbelievable if I'm right.
Thanks for explaining your rationale.
Hopefully 1 last cleansing of the degens and a 1 way ticket to the promised land for the patient sat stackers.
I doubt it. Human nature to be lazy and look for the most familiar path. Right now that is IBIT and treasury companies, both coinbase custody. Someone else will come along with a new "easy" way that let's them fractional reserve.
I don't support legal interventions but I suspect that custodian reserves regulations are in the future if Master and Blackrock get burned.