If you’re into #MSTR, don’t get too excited assuming they’ll be included in the S&P500 this week. There is a very real chance they won’t be.

Here is ChatGPT articulating what matches up with my gut feeling, and why I’ll probably be in straddles or strangles at the close on Friday.

Prompt:

Give me your best estimate of the overall odds of MSTR being included in the S&P500 in September 2025 based on past similar companies being included or excluded and assuming MSTR does meet all technical requirements for inclusion. Take into account the current biases of committee members based on past performance, press releases, public and private speeches, etc.

Response:

Here’s my best single-number estimate (with a range) given your assumption that MSTR meets every technical screen (domicile, float/liquidity, market-cap band, and positive GAAP earnings in the latest quarter and the trailing four):

≈30% odds (plausible range: 20%–40%) that MSTR is added in September 2025.

Why that number

Committee discretion > rules. Even when a company ticks every box, the S&P U.S. Index Committee can (and often does) delay or pass, weighing turnover, sector balance, and representativeness. Tesla’s 2020 “not yet” despite meeting the screens is the canonical example; it was added later.

Sector/”profile” fit this quarter. Recent chatter around September candidates tilts toward more traditional “operating” names (e.g., HOOD, APP, ARES, IBKR, VRT). That competition trims MSTR’s near-term slot probability even if it’s eligible.

Crypto precedent helps—but doesn’t clinch it. Coinbase’s May 2025 addition proves crypto-exposed firms aren’t disqualified on philosophy alone. However, MSTR’s earnings are now dominated by mark-to-market Bitcoin swings under the new FASB fair-value rule, making GAAP profitability highly volatile—exactly the kind of thing the committee sometimes sidesteps for stability/minimal turnover.

Dual-class is not a blocker anymore. S&P reversed its 2017 ban in 2023; multiple share classes are again eligible for the S&P Composite 1500 (incl. the 500) if all other criteria are met. So governance structure won’t be what keeps MSTR out.

Timing math. September is a regular rebalance month (often announced in early September), but many adds happen outside the quarterly dates when deletions create openings. Limiting to “September 2025” narrows the window and lowers the odds versus a 6–12 month horizon.

If not September…

Holding the same assumptions (and BTC-driven GAAP stays positive on a TTM basis), I’d put 12-month inclusion odds around ~55%—higher simply because there are more bite-at-the-apple moments (corporate-action replacements + year-end rebalances), not because of any guaranteed path.