What do you mean I’m cooked? And what hiring would companies be doing? For software engineers?
I agree on the point on SaaS for sure. But I think that expertise only becomes more important in this scenario.
Discussion
Software companies would be cooked because AI would be hyper deflationary at that point. They would need absolutely massive scale to stay afloat and even then it would be a losing battle because AI will continue to evolve.
What expertise exactly? If everyone can develop production-level applications now thanks to AI, there isn't much value in that skill any longer.
Stepping through this and thinking of evolution, if we ever get even semi-functional AGI, it would truly be over because then it becomes a set it and forget it workforce. You'd set up a legion of AI agents, give them access to your company data and they'd likely be able to do everything soup to nuts, in real time responding to changes in the business.
Ya, I personally don’t buy that well will ever get to a point where AI can do everything 100%.
But to be clear, in my scenario I’m imaging AI good enough to build apps, but not necessarily knowing what to build and would need to be “prompted” by a user. In that case, the problem becomes who can envision the most compelling solutions to problems.
You could argue it would take AGI to get an AI like what I’m suggesting, and I think that’s fair, but I also don’t buy that a statistical model is capable of AGI (nor do I think we’ll get to a point of deploying apps with 0 technical knowledge).
Regardless, I do agree that tech companies are cooked. I have come to despise SV type companies and it would bring me joy to watch them fail.