I'll take the other side of the bet if we can agree on a metric to measure it

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I like your style. The metric is definitely going to be hard to measure. Maybe both will have their use case.

I sew lightning as fundamental to ecash and fedimint for any external payments and bridging to other mints. So this is really debating whether there will be more internal private transactions then outside of a mint. Ignoring the fact that if we could measure/audit number of transactions of a mint and type that it violates the privacy benefit, I look to traditional banking institutions in fiat land and it seems most payments go out from one to another.