Good morning/afternoon.
Hello #bitcoin (N)Ostriches. Here you have an interesting chart book courtesy of nostr:npub14mcddvsjsflnhgw7vxykz0ndfqj0rq04v7cjq5nnc95ftld0pv3shcfrlx and his recent show with Matthew Mežinskis about "Central Bank broken money and bitcoin" links below.
Above the current Central bank´s base money for the top 5 currencies $ 27,4 Trillion of which $ 20 Trillion (ca 2/3) are only digital bank reserves and $ 7-8 Trillion (ca 1/3) is physical cash/banknotes.
The above chart shows the avg compound growth rate of the base money supply at 13% per year (1,1% pro month) since 1969.
The above chart shows world population 8 billion growing at compounded 1,5% per year, while physical cash is $ 8,9 Trillion and has been growing at 10,5% compound per annum i.e. 7x the population growth. Now ask one of those Keynesian economics professors to explain you how this would not cause price inflation.
The above shows the total US money supply growth from 1959 at $ 303 billion to today $ 38,5 Trillion
Now it gets interesting. The above shows the power trendline (black) for bitcoin price. The blu line is a 1 standard deviation move and the red line is a 2 standard deviation move (i.e. a 5% percentile move which happens only in 5% of the cases) . The vertical line shows the FTX collapse when bitcoin price hit the extreme of the red line 2 standard deviation move at $ 16.000.
This is where we are today with #bitcoin price around the 1 standard deviation blu line $ 28.000 while the trend line remains far above at $ 56.000
As a matter of curiosity the trend line projection at April 2024 for the halving shows a price of $ 73.400.
Since a 2 standard deviation move happened both in 2014 and in 2018 and a move above the 1 standard deviation - but not to the 2 standard deviation -happened in 2021, it is interesting to project both the trend line price and that of the red and blu lines at the end of 2027:
- trend line at $ 256.000
- 1 standard deviation at $ 566.000
- 2 standard deviation at $ 1,7 Mil
If we project out to 2030 we have:
- trend line at $ 610.000
- 1 standard deviation at $ 1,3 Mil
- 2 standard deviation at $ 4 Mil
BUY #bitcoin
Enjoy the Whatbitcoindid video here
Discussion
No replies yet.