Short-term price moves are secondary and hard to predict accurately. Markets tend to revisit areas of high participation before extending trends, hype and euphoria need to be ironed out. A retrace toward anchored VWAP (red plot around $60k) from the prior cycles high, would not be unusual and would reset positioning rather than signal failure. Every prior cycle this has been the case. This could take the next ~12 months before starting to appreciate in value further against fiat currencies.

When viewed over short intervals, Bitcoin appears volatile. When viewed over long intervals, the pattern is consistent. On multi-month timeframes, including three-month candles like in the screenshot below, Bitcoin has never entered a true bear market. Each period of consolidation or drawdown has been followed by repricing driven by fixed supply and declining issuance. This is not accidental. Scarcity is enforced through the halving schedule, while demand expands unevenly over time. Fiat currencies, by contrast, expand by design. The result is a persistent divergence when the timeframe is long enough. Outcomes therefore depend less on prediction and more on horizon. Bitcoin’s behaviour changes with perspective, but its monetary mechanics do not.