If the chain permanently splits because core URSFs in response- he would be able to still access his tap tree on that chain. So he would have two core coins and I would be able to access the knots coins a month later.

I would follow through- even though I can just dump my shitcoin core version of bitcoin on an exchange for the monetary knots version. Might even get a pretty premium for them amid the chaos.

He's also framing these bets/markets on an extremely short time frame because he thinks it boosts his odds compared to a longer time frame.