Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis - March 12, 2025, 5:05 AM (UTC+7)
**Overview:**
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a very strong breakout on the short and medium-term timeframes (15m, 4H), confirmed by the breakout above the FVG and Buyside Zone at $73,794 on the 15m TF. The short to medium-term trend is clearly up. *However*, the Daily timeframe *does not yet give a clear bullish confirmation* because the most recent candle (March 11) is a Doji and the March 12 candle has not yet closed. *Also*, the 4H TF price is still below the EMA 50/200 (even though there are other bullish signs).
**Price Data (as of Mar 12, 2025, 5:05 AM UTC+7):**
* **Current Price:** 83,138 USD
**Technical Analysis:**
* **15-Minute Timeframe (15m):**
* **SMC:**
* The price broke out above the FVG and Buyside Zone at $73,794 very strongly. *This is a very important bullish signal.*
* *Conclusion:* Bullish Breakout.
* **ICT Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:**
* *Buyside Liquidity (Resistance):* No clear technical resistance. Resistance may be at psychological round numbers (84,000, 85,000, 90,000).
* *Sellside Liquidity (Support):* 82,000, 81,000, 80,000 (psychological support, near EMA).
* 73,794 (FVG/Buyside Zone - strong support *if* price retraces)
* **Money Flow:** *Positive* (Strong Inflow).
* **EMA:** The price is clearly *above* both the EMA 50 (yellow) and EMA 200 (white). A Golden Cross is occurring/has occurred.
* **Trend Strength:** *Thick green* cloud, clear *Buy* signal.
* **Chart Pattern:** Breakout Pattern.
* **Candlesticks:** Bullish
* **4-Hour Timeframe (4H):**
* **SMC:**
* The price broke out above previous significant resistance.
* Clear Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL).
* *Important:* The current price is *still below* the EMA 50 (approximately 84,904) and EMA 200 (approximately 90,541.6). *This is a point of concern*.
* *Conclusion:* Attempting to turn bullish, *but facing EMA resistance*.
* **ICT Buyside & Sellside Liquidity (clarified with new image):**
* *Buyside Liquidity:* EMA 50 (~84,904), EMA 200 (~90,541.6), and higher.
* *Sellside Liquidity:*
* 81,400 (Minor Support)
* 79,568.2 (Clearly visible support on the chart)
* 77,076.9 - 75,300 (Support Zone)
* **Money Flow:** *Positive* (Inflow).
* **EMA:** The price is *below* the EMA 50 and EMA 200.
* **Trend Strength:** *Green* cloud, *Buy* signal. (This signal may be lagging).
* **Chart Pattern:** Breakout (but incomplete because it hasn't cleared the EMA).
* **Candlesticks:** Bullish
* **Daily Timeframe (Day):**
* **SMC:**
* The most recent candle (March 11) is a *Doji*. Indicates *indecision*.
* There is *no* complete Bearish Engulfing.
* We *must wait* for the March 12 candle to close *before we can determine the Day TF trend*.
* The All-Time High you specified is 109,998.9 (which is likely a target, not an actual historical price).
* **ICT Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:**
* *Buyside Liquidity:* 109,998.9 (target).
* *Sellside Liquidity:* $60,000 (key support), $50,000-$52,000 (EMA 200).
* **Money Flow:** *Positive.*
* **EMA:** EMA 50 is above EMA 200.
* **Trend Strength:** *Green* cloud (*but thinning*), *Sell* signal (which might be *incorrect* because it's based on the Doji).
* **Chart Pattern:** *No* clear pattern (because of the Doji).
* **Candlesticks:** Doji
**Trading Strategies:**
1. **Day Trade (15m):**
* **Risk:** Moderate-High (Bullish, but overbought, and conflicting with 4H).
* **Main Strategy: Cautious Long:**
1. ***Do not chase the price***.
2. **Wait for Pullback:** Wait for the price to *retrace* to near support (82,000, 81,000, 80,000, or the EMA).
3. **Look for Confirmation:** Look for bullish reversal signals at support.
4. **Enter Long:** If there is a signal.
5. **Stop Loss:** Below the most recent Swing Low, or below the support.
6. **Take Profit:** Set in stages.
* **Do not Short:** Until there are very clear Bearish signals.
2. **Swing Trade (4H):**
* **Risk:** High (because the price is still below the EMA 50/200).
* **Main Strategy: Wait and See/Extremely Cautious Long:**
* *Do not buy now*.
* *If you want to go Long*, you must wait for the price to break out above the EMA 50 and EMA 200 *with strong momentum* (and volume) *only*. *And* you must have a very tight Stop Loss.
3. **Position Trade (Day):**
* **Risk:** Moderate (because of the Doji).
* **Main Strategy: Wait and See**. *Wait* for the Day candle of March 12 to *close* first.
* **Bullish:** If it closes green (above the high of the Doji).
* **Bearish:** If it closes red.
**SMC Day Trade Setup (Example - Not a Recommendation):**
* **Entry:** Wait for a Pullback to 80,000-81,000 and a Bullish Reversal Pattern.
* **Stop Loss:** Below the reversal pattern.
* **Take Profit:** 84,000, 85,000, or higher.
**Important Considerations:**
* **Overbought:** The price has risen very quickly.
* **Volatility:** High.
* **EMA 50/200 (4H):** Key resistance levels.
* **Day TF Indecision (Doji):** Must wait for the Day candle to close.
**Conclusion:**
Bitcoin has a strong bullish breakout on the 15m TF, confirmed by breaking above the FVG. The short-term trend is up. *However*, the 4H TF is *still facing
**Disclaimer:** This analysis is a personal opinion and not investment advice. Investors should do their own research and make decisions carefully.