The shitcoiner subsidy will likely go away soon, and we'll be primarily left with the standard subsidy, which is what motivates the miners.

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You are probably right.

I like to ponder the future, when the subsidy gets much smaller. How much will fees be then? What year will fees be consistently greater than subsidy?

Subsidy epoch 10 :)

So bearish on demand for block space, Ha ha!

Super hard to know. But if I had to bet, Epoch 6