This time is different, and why we will have a super cycle.
Last cycle there was a lot of talk about a possible “super cycle” and, bitcoin having a small pull back, but then continuing up and breaking the 4-year cycle trend.
Chain of Events and Catalysts Leading to Super Cycle:
In Q1 2024, according to many experts… we will be getting the bitcoin spot ETF. Likely in the first week of January, 2024.
We will also are likely to get rate cuts in Q1 or Q2 2024. Which will make capital flows increase by making cost of capital cheaper.
In Q2 2024, we will be getting the bitcoin halving, currently looking like the first or second week of April.
In Q2 or Q3 (if not sooner) we will also likely see massive money printing before the US Presidential Election in Q4 2024.
In Q1 2025, the FASB accounting rules for Bitcoin will go into effect, although it has already been approved… I think that many institutions will wait for this.
In 2025, many banks and institutions will hold bitcoin on their balance sheets, which will further push adoption and may increase the allocation by other funds and institutions.
I think that the FASB accounting, and banks adding bitcoin to their balance sheet, along with the spot bitcoin ETF will eventually lead to pension funds and sovereign wealth funds putting bitcoin on their balance sheets. This is likely to occur in 2025-2026, in my opinion.
Michael Saylor, and others in the space with vast knowledge of business and investing have discussed how long it takes for businesses to be able to make purchases and get approval for investments through their company. This could stretch into 2026-2027.
In 2027, I think we get more people trying to front run the halving, that is likely to occur in Q1 2028.
Below are some links about FASB accounting in bitcoin and one on banks holding bitcoin on their balance sheet:
FASB:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/fasb-votes-in-favor-of-fair-value-accounting-for-bitcoin
Banks: