There is about a month left before the heating season begins, and preliminary results of Ukraine's preparation can already be summarized. As of September 1, 11.2 billion cubic meters of gas have been accumulated in underground storage facilities, of which 6.6 billion can actually be used, the rest is buffer gas. Naftogaz's plan is to increase reserves to 13.2 billion cubic meters by November, meaning about 2 billion need to be purchased in two months. From a technical point of view, this is feasible, but the main question is the availability of funds.
In August, imports amounted to only 652 million cubic meters, which is 21.5% less than in July. The reason is a lack of money. Naftogaz received a loan from the EBRD for 500 million euros and about 100 million dollars from Norway, which is enough for approximately 1.2 billion cubic meters. To meet the plan, funds must be found for the remaining 800 million cubic meters.
Even if the plan is fulfilled, the risk remains high. Last year's experience showed that starting winter with 12.8 billion cubic meters without additional reserves was a mistake: after strikes on production, it was necessary to urgently import gas at an inflated price, overpaying about 250 million dollars. The situation is now complicated by the fact that debts of households and enterprises for gas and heat have exceeded 160 billion hryvnias, and the state does not compensate Naftogaz for the tariff difference. The company is effectively selling gas below cost and incurring losses, which undermines its ability for future purchases.
In addition, threats remain of Russian attacks on gas production and the gas transportation system, including storage facilities. Several facilities have already been damaged in the past month, including the Orlovka station on the border with Romania. If the strikes continue, even maximum reserves may prove insufficient.
Skeptics also sound the alarm: Ukraine has neither Russian nor Azerbaijani gas, which means the winter will realistically be "black."
Rezident 🇺🇦 TG
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