Breaking open the Chainalysis blackbox is very important, regardless of the outcome of this case. There are others out there facing similar computer-says-guilty charges. Sometimes the computer is right, but that's not how due process works.
https://geyser.fund/project/usvsterlingov
Just had a long conversation with the lawyers working on this case.
tl;dr: the US govt is using shoddy Chainalysis data to accuse some dude of running the bitcoinfog mixer. It's a bullshit claim supported by terrible evidence. Chainalysis has staked their reputation on this case; if these guys win against the US govt, it'll do enormous damage to Chainalysis as a business.
I gave them $100 (with lightning!). You should donate too. Lawyers deserve to get paid to fight important cases.
Discussion
It's worth reading the affidavit and ask yourself what additional data you'd want to see to be convinced one way or the other. If you could subpoena any exchange / hosting provider what would you ask? Tiny problem: this happened more than a decade ago, so some data and even entire companies are gone.
https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.230456/gov.uscourts.dcd.230456.1.1_1.
